OK, we have an agreement re Greece, according to which … what?
We do have four months
of funding, plus what looks like an agreement not to hold Greece to
fiscal targets for right now in the face of probably fiscal
deterioration. The question is what strings were attached.
Greece seemingly gave a
lot of ground on the language: the stuff about fiscal adjustment in
line with the November 2012 Eurogroup is back in, which Germany will
presumably claim represents a commitment to stay with the 4.5 percent
primary surplus target. But Greece apparently is claiming that the
agreement offers new flexibility, which means that it will assert that
it has agreed to no such thing.
So we’re in a weird
place: this looks like a defeat for Greece, but since nothing
substantive was resolved, it’s only a defeat if the Greeks accept it as
one; which means that nothing at all is clearly resolved. And that’s
arguably a good outcome — time for Greece to get its act together.
I do find myself
remembering an old joke, which slightly modified works for this
situation: what do you get if you cross a godfather with a group of
finance ministers? Someone who makes you an offer you can’t understand.
Source:
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