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Πέμπτη, 21 Μαΐου 2015

Greece's True Deadline May be May 29 and The Fall of Constantinople 29 May 1453

When does Greece finally run out of money? At what point will depositors have drawn so much cash out of the Greek financial system that its banks are essentially insolvent? And how long before Greece exhausts its bag of tricks, such as drawing down account balances at the International Monetary Fund to pay money owed to the International Monetary Fund? Here's a potential answer.
Greece's Fiscal Odyssey
Greek banks have been increasingly reliant on emergency liquidity assistance from the European Central Bank since February. And because Greece's banks only have sufficient collateral to cover 95 billion euros ($106 billion) of ELA funding, extrapolating the growth in that reliance on a chart delivers a deadline -- May 29:
Source: Bloomberg
Of course,
there's a huge caveat to this kind of extrapolation. The pace of Greece's appetite for ECB cash might decelerate, so the upper limit might not be reached so quickly. Or the ECB may decide it needs to be more generous in how it treats the collateral against which it's lending, which could raise the threshold. Or Greece's creditors might decide to release a portion of the funds the government in Athens is seeking, throwing it a lifeline in exchange for implementing at least some economic reforms.  At the same time, though, demand for ELA money has been rising consistently for three months, so it seems unlikely depositors will suddenly start tossing euros back into their Greek bank accounts between now and May 29. The ECB, for its part, seems more likely to tighten the discount it demands on Greek collateral than to loosen the reins. And while Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Monday that "we are very close" to an agreement, European Commission officials seem less convinced.
The ELA program already makes at least one ECB policymaker uncomfortable. "I don’t find it OK that banks without market access get loans to finance bonds of their own country, which is itself without market access," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in interview published Monday by the Handelsblatt newspaper. "I’m concerned by the increased politicization of central banks, as well as the constantly rising expectations in us."
He's right to be worried. As Greece approaches the mathematical limit of its entitlements under the ELA program, the ECB may find itself in the untenable position of acting as judge, jury and executioner. Let's hope the politicians can find a solution before we get to that point, which is now just 10 days away.


Fall of Constantinople

Fall of Constantinople
Part of The Byzantine–Ottoman Wars and Ottoman wars in Europe
Constantinople 1453.jpg
The last siege of Constantinople, contemporary 15th century French miniature
Date 6 April – 29 May 1453 (1 month, 3 weeks and 2 days)
Location Constantinople (present-day Istanbul)
  • Decisive Ottoman victory[2] and end of the Byzantine Empire
Commanders and leaders
  • 7,000[6]
  • 8,000[7]
  • 10,000[8]
  • 12,000[9]
  • 26 ships[10]
  • 600 Ottoman defectors[11]
  • Of the 7,000 - 10,000 soldiers in the Byzantine army, 700 were both Genoese and Greek from the island of Chios and Genoa (400 were recruited at Genoa and 300 at Chios), 800 soldiers lead by the Venetians (mostly were of Cretan origin, who were renowned for fighting heroically during the siege), 200 men from Cardinal Isidore, all of which were archers. By nationality, there were 5,000 Greeks and 2,000 foreigners, mostly of Genoese and Venetian origin.[12]
50,000[13][14][15][16]– 80,000[17][18][19]
100,000[7]–160,000[20][21]–200,000[3] to 300,000[22]
Casualties and losses
  • 4,000 killed in total (including combatants and civilians)[28][29]
    30,000 were enslaved or deported[30]
Unknown but heavy[31][32]
  • a: Figures according to recent estimates and Ottoman archival data. The Ottoman Empire, for demographic reasons, would not have been able to put more than 80,000 men into the field at the time.[33]
  • b: Figures according to contemporaneous Western/Christian estimates[33]
  • c: More specifically, the Byzantine Empire under the Palaiologos dynasty
  • d: The Kingdom of Sicily mainly donated ships and a few soldiers, it was not official however, and was done by several Cardinals.
  • e: The Venetians decided to make a peace treaty with the Ottomans in September 1451, because their Doge was on good terms already with the Ottomans and they did not want to ruin a relationship. They also did not want the Ottomans to interfere with their trade in the Black Sea and Mediterranean. The Venetians' efforts mainly included giving Constantine XI ships and a total of 800 soldiers in February 1453. The Venetians also promised that a larger fleet would arrive to save Constantine, this fleet would be full of ammunition, fresh soldiers and supplies. This fleet never came.
  • f: The Genoese captain Giovanni Giustiniani Longo was wounded in battle, but managed to escape, he died during the early days of June 1453.
  • g: This Venetian captain was not an official sent by Venice, instead, he was the leader of the Venetian colony in the city and guaranteed his full support by the Ottomans navally, by supplying them with the ships the Venetians had in their harbour.[4]
The Fall of Constantinople (Greek: Άλωση της Κωνσταντινούπολης, Alōsē tēs Kōnstantinoupolēs; Turkish: İstanbul'un Fethi Conquest of Istanbul) was the capture of the capital of the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire by an invading army of the Ottoman Empire on Tuesday, 29 May 1453. The Ottomans were commanded by 21-year-old Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II, who defeated an army commanded by Byzantine Emperor Constantine XI Palaiologos. The conquest of Constantinople followed a seven-week siege that had begun on Friday, 6 April 1453.
The capture of Constantinople (and two other Byzantine splinter territories soon thereafter) marked the end of the Roman Empire, an imperial state which had lasted for nearly 1,500 years.[34] The Ottoman conquest of Constantinople also dealt a massive blow to Christendom, as the Ottoman armies thereafter were free to advance into Europe without an adversary to their rear. After the conquest, Sultan Mehmed transferred the capital of the Ottoman Empire from Edirne to Constantinople. Several Greek and other intellectuals fled the city before and after the siege, with the majority of them migrating particularly to Italy, which helped fuel the Renaissance.
The conquest of the city of Constantinople and the end of the Byzantine Empire was a key event in the Late Middle Ages which also marks, for some historians, the end of the Middle Ages.[35]

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