Thus far, Turkey has been the only country bordering ISIS-controlled zones not to be attacked at all. iHLS desk attempts to explain.
ISIS keep reiterating their
ultimate goal is the creation of an Islamic state whose core is Turkey.
This Islamic state is to stretch from the Caucasus to most of the
northern half of Africa, from Spain and most of Southern Europe to
India. It is therefore a puzzle as to why Turkey, the heart of the
former Ottoman Empire, remains as yet un-attacked by ISIS. This is all
the more puzzling, as, in stark contrast, ISIS has been subverting the
regime not only in Syria and Iraq, but also in Lebanon and in Jordan,
where it has been inspiring mass demonstrations. The question remains,
how come Turkey has thus far been spared?
First, ISIS “pick on the
little guy”: Syria has been disintegrating for years whereas Iraq, with a
serious power vacuum, is split into three de facto states. ISIS is yet
to brave an attack against a country with a strong, effective government
with an obvious grip throughout its territory. ISIS is still at the
buildup stage, first through support and backing from the West and the
Sunni Arab countries, as it was fighting against Assad, and now through
rapid, bloody and highly publicized easy pickings against far flung and
weak military forces.
Turkey is far from being an
easy target: this is a regional power whose military grip, even in the
most remote positions of its far borders, remains firm and ready. Turkey
has an impressive air force, a huge army (the second largest in NATO)
and a booming economy. Turkey has over 200 F-16 fighter jets and scores
of fighter helicopters. This March, a Turkish F-16 downed a Syrian
Mig-23.
Secondly, Turkey has reached
agreements with the Kurds in its own territory, with the Kurds in Syria
and with the Kurds in northern Iraq. Erdogan’s regime shows pragmatism
and long-term thinking by signing off on Kurdish autonomy and eventual
statehood. Thus, as far as Ankara is concerned, the elements that would
have sided with ISIS have been neutralized. Moreover, the Kurds,
spanning three countries, have become a ‘cordon sanitaire’ of sorts, and
an ally vis-à-vis ISIS. Turkey has paid a price for this, in the form
of strained relations with the US, which does not welcome an independent
Kurdistan.
Thirdly, Turkey lets others
fight for her – not only the Kurds and the Sunni states, but also the
US. Turkey – an important NATO member since 1952 – refuses to allow US
aircraft to attack ISIS from its own bases. Erdogan is therefore playing
a double game: Turkey is a member of NATO, and at the same time he
signals ISIS he is yet to side with their enemies – at least for now.
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