Spoiler warning: This article assumes you are caught up with the five published
A Song of Ice and Fire books and the four televised Game of Thrones series. If you are not, consider this laden with spoilers.
Overview
Game of Thrones Season 5 is going to be a rough, and intentionally not-complete, adaptation of the fourth, (A Feast for Crows or AFFC) fifth, (A Dance with Dragons, or ADWD) and parts of the sixth (The Winds of Winter, or TWOW) books of A Song of Ice and Fire,
a rather lengthy fantasy book series. AFFC and ADWD are dense material,
and 10 hours of television will not be able to cover them all, so some
book plots have been confirmed or all-but-confirmed to not be present on
the tv show adaptation. This article will attempt to cover plot
probabilities from two main sources: things From the Books (FTB), which
are plot threads being adapted from the novels, and things Not From the
Books (NFTB), which are plot threads entirely or mostly invented for the
show. These plot probabilities will be discussed by the way that seems
most sensible to me: by characters. To not go overboard, I will limit
myself to five plot probabilities per character. ... except when I cheat
and write up more than five.
Image by Cris Urdiales
Cersei Lannister
FTB: We see Cersei's prophetic past:
As a child, Cersei had her fortune read by Maggy the Frog, who foresaw
her queenship, her loss of queenship, the birth and death of her three
children, and her death at the hands of her valonqar. Probability: 100%. This
will be the first flashback on the show, which might help later seasons
provide Bran with some material, now that he's living under the trees.
This flashback also helps impose constraints on the lifespan of her and
her remaining children; Tommen and Myrcella must (?) die before she.
FTB: Cersei is bad at ruling. With her father dead and Tommen partially under her control, Cersei Lannister is the de facto ruler
of the Seven Kingdoms. She does not rule well. She staffs the Small
Council with her own lackeys, she suspects the Tyrells of complicity in
Tywin's death and Tyrion's escape, she angers the Iron Bank of Braavos
and the Faith of the Seven (and orders the murder of the High Septon!),
she allows the High Sparrow to revive the Faith Militant, she becomes
more and more paranoid and more and more alcoholic... Things go bad. Probability: 90%. Some of the particulars might not happen, but her general inability to rule will probably happen. Also GoT loves to let Cersei drink.
FTB: Cersei tries to get Margaery killed. Cersei uses
her connections to get someone to falsely accuse Margaery of infidelity,
which is a crime that the High Sparrow does not take well, imprisoning
Margaery. Probability: 50%. If the show follows this
accusations plotline, I'm not sure who would do the accusing. Maybe
Lancel Lannister? But the show might go in a very different direction,
perhaps having Loras Tyrell's homosexuality be the issue that leads to
friction between the Faith Militant / High Sparrow and the rulers of
King's Landing.
FTB: Cersei's plan backfires, she gets imprisoned by the High Sparrow.
In the books, this happens because the accuser of Margaery eventually
admits to having killed the previous High Septon on the orders of
Cersei. Probability: 90%. Once again the rough plot
development will probably occur, but it seems unlikely to involve
accusations and counter-accusations of infidelity. Cersei has done a lot
of other questionable things on the show (e.g., helping kill Robert
Baratheon) so there's lots for her to get imprisoned for.
FTB: Cersei has a nude penance walk. After confessing
to (some of) her sins, Cersei is still being going to undergo a trial by
the Faith. She is shaved of her hair, stripped naked, and forced to
walk from the Great Sept of Baelor to the Red Keep. The assembled crowd
throw words and filth at her as she walks. Probability: 100%. This plot has been confirmed to have been filmed.
Summary: The rough outline of Cersei's plot from the
books is going to be translated to the screen adaptation, although it
sounds like the show will continue to drastically cut down on the number
of extramarital relationships she has. Which is ... kind of surprising,
given this show's predilections. There is also the claim that Gregor
Clegane's actor was involved in a day or two of shoots, so...
FrankenGregor confirmed?
Image by Ania Mitura
Jaime Lannister (and Bronn)
FTB: Jaime turns down Cersei's offer to be new Hand of the King.
The series has so far followed a strict adaptation on how this office
has been handed down, so it's possible the series will follow this
plot, which helps create tension between Jaime and Cersei. Probability: 50%.
It's a somewhat boring plot development so it might get dropped. The
Hand of the King in the fourth book is a title passed by Cersei first to
one relative unknown and then another so I don't know if the show will
just give it to Kevan Lannister in absentia until his appearance later in the season.
FTB: Jaime goes to the Riverlands with Ilyn Payne, helps stop Brynden Tully.
The actor who plays Ilyn Payne had a cancer scare after the third
season had filmed, and even though the cancer has since gone into
remission, both the character and the actor have left the show, except
for one quick mention last year. Also there is no indication that
Brynden Tully has returned to the show for season 5. Probability: 0%. Ilyn Payne and Brynden Tully are both MIA.
NFTB: Jaime goes to Dorne with Bronn. To be economical
and efficient the show is sending Jaime and Bronn to Dorne to
negotiate the situation down there with established POV characters. Probability: 100%. The trailers are very emphatic that Jaime and Bronn are going to Dorne.
FTB: Cersei and Brienne both request Jaime's help.
Jaime refuses Cersei's request for help in King's Landing when things
go south for her there. He does, however, acquiese to a request from
Brienne, to meet Lady Stoneheart... Probability: 75% and 0%.
Jaime might not be in a position to help Cersei if he is in Dorne and
can't get out. Depending on what Brienne is doing in her plot, she might
not ever want to request help from Jaime.
NFTB: Jaime and/or Bronn dies. The show is unlikely to kill off Jaime Lannister, even if things in Dorne go badly. But Bronn is a lot more expendable... Probability: 0% and 33%.
I think Bronn is more likely to survive than die but the show's
bloodthirstiness seems to result in minor characters getting offed.
Bronn might be a sacrifice this season, perhaps being offed by the
Martells when he and/or Jaime try to seize Myrcella.
Summary: Jaime's plot is being very changed around,
changing out going to the Riverlands to deal with Brynden and replacing
going to Dorne to deal with Myrcella. His tv plot is sort of replacing
the book plot of Arys Oakheart, although if anyone dies like Arys, it'll
be Bronn, not Jaime. The only thing protecting Bronn is the fact that
his character is well-acted and funny, in a show that needs as many
funny characters as it can get.
Image by M. Luisa Giliberti
Tommen and Myrcella Baratheon
FTB: Tommen gets married to Margaery Tyrell. In order to once again secure the Lannister-Tyrell alliance, Tommen marries Margaery. Probability: 100%. Apparently happening in the second or third episode of the season.
NFTB: Myrcella falls for Trystane Martell. Myrcella Baratheon, once in Dorne, realizes that the Martells are way less messed up than her family. Probability: 100%.
Myrcella is definitely going to fall for Trystane and this show might
have a romance plot, between young adults, which is not disturbing. How
refreshing!
NFTB: Myrcella gets married to Trystane Martell. The
show might make Myrcella's conversion to the Martell side of the
Lannister-Martell conflict by having Myrcella marry Trystane. Probability: 25%. While Myrcella is definitely going to fall for Trystane, I think their marriage is less likely to happen.
FTB: Myrcella loses an ear. Myrcella is wounded in a
complex plot between rival factions in Dorne. Although there will
probably still be rival factions in Dorne (Oberyn's daughters v.
everyone else?) I think the show realizes it has maimed enough
Lannisters. Probability: 0%. No Myrcella Van Gogh.
FTB: Tommen is a rubberstamp ruler. Book Tommen is a
bit younger than TV Tommen so this seems less likely to happen. But he
will probably just go along with whatever Cersei says as long as Cersei
is the Queen Regent. Probability: 90%. Ser Pounce approves.
Summary: Jaime and Cersei's two children both have
romance plots and courtly machinations that will be strengthened from
what plots they had in the books, as the TV versions are older and more
capable of handling themselves (and plotlines) than their book
counterparts. The Lannister kids have always been fun to watch (anyone
who claims Joffrey wasn't fun to watch is lying) so this adaptation
change should be for the better.
Image by Kay Huang.
Tyrion Lannister
FTB: Meets with Illyrio and Varys in Pentos. Well, Varys wasn't there in the books, but close enough. While here, they put him onto his path towards Daenerys in Meereen. Probability: 100%.
Trailers for Season 5 have already shown Varys and Tyrion chatting
about Daenerys, and the show has been very blatant that Illyrio and
Varys are Targaryen loyalists.
FTB: They send him on a slow boat to Meereen. While
on the boat, Tyrion interacts with some interesting people. This group
of people includes Jon Connington, a former Hand of the King, and Aegon
Targaryen, the long-hidden heir to the currently deposed Targaryen
dynasty. Probability: 0%. The show appears to be
excising Jon Connington and Aegon from its storyline entirely, which
obviously makes all of us bookreaders confused on what this says about
(f)Aegon.
NFTB: They send him quickly to Daenerys. I'm not
entirely sure how Tyrion is going to get on Danerys's trusting side
quickly, but he's apparently going to be trusted enough by her to be at
her wedding. So. Yeah. He will move from Pentos to Meereen in half a
season at most, probably seeking a boat at Volantis, which has been
shown in the more recent trailer. Probability: 100%. Maybe Tyrion can add the Hand of the Queen to his extensive résumé.
FTB: Tyrion is drinking and whoring a lot. In the
novels, Tyrion "deals with" the pain of killing his father and lover by
doing a lot of drinking and whoring. The show will probably include the
drinking to some degree (it likes to let Dinklage drink) but not to the
same degree. As for the whoring, well, GoT does like having random whore characters so... Probability: 50%. He's doing less drinking and whoring because Tywin and Jaime didn't make him remember Tysha, but still drinking and whoring.
FTB: Jorah meets, and captures, Tyrion. After visiting a brothel in Selhorys, Jorah captures Tyrion. Probability: 0%.
From all shown Season 5 footage, it looks like Jorah's plot involves
being a slave, whereas Tyrion's doesn't, so their paths might not cross
until Daenerys's wedding. I've read claims that somehow Jorah's story is
being hidden and he does capture Tyrion in Volantis but that claim
sounds wrong.
Summary: Tyrion's story in Season 5 looks like it will
be extremely more efficient than his story in Book 5. This has a very
definite downside (in that an interesting contender for the Iron Throne
is being excluded) but it has a very definite upside (of increasing the
speed of Daenerys's plot).
Image by Anita Puskás
Brienne of Tarth and Podrick Payne
NFTB: They go to the Bloody Gate. In the show, they were on their way there when they met Arya and Sandor. Probability: 100%. As good of a place as any for them to look for Starks.
NFTB: They encounter Sansa. Rumors abound that a group
of people from the Vale (including Sansa) meet up with Brienne, either
in the Vale or in the Riverlands. Probability: 80%.
This sounds like it's happening, and that Brienne is going to be (very
shortly) a captive of Arryn forces, who tell her and Podrick to be quiet
about Sansa.
FTB: They return to the Riverlands. Probability: 100%.
Someone's plot has to be in the Riverlands this season, and it looks
like Brienne is the one. I don't know if that means she will go towards
Tully lands or not...
FTB: They are captured by the BwB. The Brotherhood without Banners captures them while they are searching for Starks. Probability: 0%.
The actor for Beric Dondarrion is apparently not appearing in Season 5,
nor the actor for Thoros of Myr, and Gendry was taken out of the BwB in
Season 3. So this group seems to be gone from the show.
FTB: They encounter Lady Stoneheart. Probability: 0%. The show has been very insistent that this character does not exist in the show's universe, so let's move on shall we?
Summary: It sounds like Brienne will find Sansa Stark
but then be told to not tell anyone that she found Sansa Stark. What
happens after that seems to be more up in the air. Maybe she will be
helping shore up support for the Bolton overthrow?
Image by Joe Harty
Bran Stark, Meera Reed, and Hodor
FTB: Bran trains. The un-televised parts of Bran's story in ADWD is primarily him learning how to use the weirwoods to see things in the past, present, and future. Probability: 0%.
Not happening, the show would much rather that in Season 6 that we just
see Bran with super magic powers, rather than have him train in Season
5.
FTB: Bran says hello to Theon. While Theon is in the Godswood of Winterfell for a wedding, he thinks he hears his name being said... Probability: 50%. I just think this would be really cool. That of course doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Summary: Although Bran, Meera, and Hodor are
apparently sitting this season out, there's always the chance that Bran
helps Theon redeem himself.
Image by Cecilia Latella
Samwell Tarly, Aemon Targaryen, and Gilly
FTB: Sam helps get Jon elected. When Stannis calls for an election for a new Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, Sam helps sway the contest Jon's way. Probability: 100%. If there is an election, Sam will help Jon win. If.
FTB: Gilly's baby gets traded. Gilly's baby gets
traded (without her permission) with that of Mance Rayder, so that
Mance's baby is far away from Castle Black. Probability: 0%. Mance has no baby. Baby-swapping seems to be one of the moral lines that the show is not going to cross.
FTB: Sam, Aemon, and Gilly visit Essos. Jon sends the
three of them (and a minor, so far unseen Crow) to Oldtown so that Sam
may become a maester. They stop in Braavos on the way, and Sam almost
(!) meets Arya. Probability: 0%. Of the tv characters
who have been seen in Braavos, Sam, Aemon, and Gilly are not amongst
them. And Aemon's main role in this plot is to conclude that Daenerys is
the Prince that was Promised, which doesn't seem to be a thing that the
show needs him to say, with Varys now being Team Daenerys rather than
Team Aegon.
NFTB: Aemon dies as a blood sacrifice. In the books,
Aemon dies on the journey to Oldtown. In the books, Melisandre burns
some people to death while she's at Castle Black. Probability: 50%.
The show seems to be hinting that someone with the blood of kings is
killed at Castle Black by Melisandre. Some people think this means
Shireen Baratheon, and I agree that it's possible that Shireen will be
offered up by her very crazy mother, Selyse. But ... Aemon is also from
the blood of kings, he himself passed on being a king. It's possible
he's going to get burned alive.
FTB: Sam and Gilly become lovers. In the books, this happens after Maester Aemon has died on the voyage to Oldtown. Probability: 20%.
In the show, they've kissed. Other than introducing unnecessary drama
(...which the show does like) I don't see why the show would have Sam
and Gilly, while at Castle Black, go any further with their
relationship.
Summary: Sam's plot in AFFC primarily happens
so that someone can be in Oldtown and in the Citadel. The show seems
less interested in this part of the world, so instead Sam hangs out at
Castle Black. It's less expensive that being on a boat, but it raises
major questions of what exactly Sam the Slayer is going to be doing
other than helping fix elections. He hasn't been seen in any of the
Hardhome scenes, so unless he's learning the dark arts from Melisandre
(please let this happen) I don't know what he is going to do.
Image by Tomasz Jedruszek
Stannis Baratheon, Melisandre, and Davos Seaworth
FTB: Stannis burns (f)Mance. Mance has broken the vows of the Night's Watch, Stannis doesn't like traitors, Mance gets burned. Probability: 20%.
The topic of "what to do with Mance" has already been brought up in the
show, and it seemed like mercy was going to be granted by Stannis. ...
but it is Stannis, who is a rather grim guy.
FTB: Melisandre glamours Mance. In order to save Mance, Melisandre uses a glamour to make someone else appear as Mance. Probability: 20%.
In the book, Rattleshirt (AKA the Lord of Bones) is who gets burned
instead. But in the show, Rattleshirt is not at Castle Black. Tormund is
in Castle Black, so maybe he will take the proverbial bullet. But, on
the other hand, the show hasn't spent much time with characters
pretending to be other characters, i.e. there was no Ramsay playing the
role of Reek in Season 2. So this entire subplot might get scrubbed.
FTB: Davos goes to White Harbor. While there he negotiates with Wyman Manderley, who says he will join with Stannis if Davos finds Rickon. Probability: 0%. No indication whatsoever that Wyman Manderley is in this season, nor that Rickon is even going to be mentioned.
FTB: Stannis captures Deepwood Motte. While on his way
south, Stannis captures Deepwood Motte, which was last mentioned in
Season 2 as a castle captured by Yara Greyjoy. Probability: 80%. It hasn't been shown in the trailers but it is sort of along the route from Castle Black to Winterfell.
NFTB: The Battle of Ice. Stannis's forces fight the forces of the Boltons, near or in Winterfell. Probability: 80%.
The trailers sound like the Boltons might be going north to meet
Stannis in the field, so some Stannis-Bolton battles may occur north of
Winterfell, which may end with one or both sides scoring key
victories...
Summary: The trailers so far haven't shown much of who
stays at Castle Black and who goes south with Stannis's army. If
Melisandre goes with his army, then she can't be at Castle Black near
the end of the season to perform some magic. If Davos goes with
Stannis's army on land, what tactical advice does he have to give?
Stannis is definitely going to be heading south, but whether his two
strongest allies are with him, and what they'll be doing if they're not
with him, is up in the air.
Image by Tiziano Baracchi
Arya Stark
FTB: Arya enters the House of Black and White. Once in Braavos, Arya is allowed to begin training to be part of the guild of the Faceless Men. Probability: 100%. The trailers have shown her in front of the doors multiple times.
NFTB: Arya is trained by Jaqen H'ghar. In the books, her instructor is referred to as the kindly man. In the show, Jaqen H'ghar's actor has been cast. Probability: 85%.
Maybe she just meets someone with Jaqen's face. But most likely, to
consolidate characters, the show will have Jaqen train her in the arts
of being a Faceless Man.
FTB: Arya is blinded. While she is blinded, she might
further develop her warging abilities, at some times using the sight of a
cat while she herself is blind. Probability: 70% on blinded, 50% on warging.
This season the ability of Starks to warg could be played up, or not,
depending on whether a particular plot development will occur.
NFTB: She kills Meryn Trant. Meryn Trant is on Arya's List, and he is going to appear in Braavos. Probability: 90%.
It hasn't been confirmed yet but it's likely to happen if Trant is
going to be in Braavos. If it does happen, this "selfish" killing on her
part could be what causes her to get blinded.
FTB: She wears a face. In ADWD, for her first assigned
killing, she travels to the lower chambers of the House of Black and
White and is assigned a face. Probability: 90%. This
special effect was already done in Season 2, so having it reappear isn't
out of the technical abilities of the show, and most fans thought it
was cool back then, so it would be cool now.
Summary: It seems like Arya's tv plot, much like
Cersei's plot, is going to mostly follow the same rough strokes as her
book plot. It seems unlikely that she will be going to Westeros before
Season 6, but both her book and TV selves will probably really really
want to.
Image by Polina
Sansa Stark, Petyr Baelish, and Robin Arryn
NFTB: Robin leaves the Eyrie. The trailers seem to be
showing Robin actually outside the Eyrie, maybe at a tournament being
held by the new Lord Protector of the Vale, Petyr Baelish. Probability: 100%. Robin Arryn continues to be the much less sickly adaptation of the book's Robert Arryn.
NFTB: Sansa Stark is (f)Arya. The trailers have shown
Arryn soldiers riding into Winterfell and Sansa in the Crypts of
Winterfell, so it seems like Sansa Stark is going to Winterfell. There
are two big rumors on what role she might play there. One is that she
will marry Ramsay Bolton in the role of Fake Arya. Probability: 40%.
I think it makes absolutely no sense for Sansa to be placed into a
position wherein she might get (very badly) injured by Ramsay, so I
don't think she is going to be (f)Arya.
NFTB: Sansa Stark serves Frey pie. The other rumor is
that Sansa will emulate Wyman Manderly and serve up meat pies at
Ramsay's wedding, pies that are full of meat from dead Freys. Probability: 60%.
A tournament in the Vale would be something the Freys could get invited
to. All that's next is chopping them up into pie, and bringing the pies
of Winterfell. This seems like it could happen, and having Sansa be the
bearer of cannibal pie is a somewhat dark turn for her character.
NFTB: Petyr goes to King's Landing. Photos have shown Baelish's character being filmed in King's Landing. Probability: 100%. He's
either there to help out Cersei (unlikely) or the Tyrells (much more
likely) when the Lannister-Tyrell conflict comes about, or attend the
wedding of Tommen and Margaery. Probably more likely the latter.
NFTB: Sansa kills Roose, Ramsay, or Reek. If Sansa is
taking a truly dark turn this season, there's three people in Winterfell
who have seriously done her family wrong, and whose deaths would help
even the karmic scales. Probabilities: 10%, 50%, 50%. I
think Roose is going to be leading the army against Stannis, so he's
not likely to be in Winterfell. Ramsay and Reek are much more likely to
be in Winterfell, so either of them could be in Sansa's crosshairs.
Summary: In AFFC, Sansa is being established as a
character who will, in Book 6 or maybe later, be a player in the Game of
Thrones. Season 4 of GoT established this, meaning that Season 5 Sansa
can be enacting plots of her own and/or with the help of Baelish. How
murderous these plots are (e.g., will she take over Winterfell?) is up
to this season to decide.
Image by Mathia Arkoniel
The Greyjoys Not Theon
FTB: Balon Greyjoy dies. The book is not entirely
clear if he dies of naturally falling off a bridge, or if he is pushed.
But his death sets up a power struggle on the Iron Islands. Probability: 100%. I'm
unsure on if his death will occur on, or off, screen, but the death of
Balon Greyjoy is a plot point that has been sitting unused since late
Season 3.
FTB: A kingsmoot is held.
Two living brothers of Balon, Euron and Victarion, and Balon's daughter
Yara, all compete to capture the will of the Ironborn and become the
next King of the Iron Islands. Probability: 10%. One
episode in Season 1 had Tyrion mentioning Theon's uncles, which would be
a reference to Euron and Victarion. Since then, there has been no
mention of Balon having brothers. So. Euron and Victarion might not
exist. With Balon's death, and the Ironborn probably not recognizing
Yara's claim to the throne, the kingship might pass to someone else.
This might all happen off-camera.
FTB: Yara is captured by Stannis.
After Deepwood Motte is attacked and taken by Stannis's forces, he
tracks down and captures the fleeing Ironborn, including Yara. Probability: 10%.
At the end of Season 3, Yara was in Pyke. In the middle of Season 4,
Yara was at the Dreadfort. Would she randomly be at Deepwood Motte again
in Season 5? Sure, why not. But this assumes Yara is even in the show
this year, of which there is no evidence so far.
Summary:
After having a fairly strong usage of the Ironborn in Season 2,
subsequent seasons have used less and less of them. Season 5 does not
look to have a strong usage of the Ironborn, and most of their actions
might not be adapted into the show. Maybe next year? Or maybe never.
Victarion is still awesome even if the show doesn't want to talk about
him. The Greyjoys not Theon might be entirely off-screen this season.
Image by Ekcess
Ramsay and Roose Bolton and Reek
FTB: Ramsay gets married to (f)Arya.
This wedding, of the last (believed) surviving member of House Stark to
House Bolton, is meant to consolidate the claim of Roose Bolton as the
new Lord of Winterfell. Probability: 100%. It's one of the three weddings that is said to happen this season.
NFTB: (f)Arya is Myranda.
In the books, (f)Arya is played by Jeyne Poole, who came south with her
father with Eddard Stark to King's Landing, and then is sent north from
King's Landing by Baelish and the Lannisters to serve as "Arya". In the
show, Jeyne Poole briefly appeared in the first episode and has never
appeared again. Someone who has been around Ramsay a lot is Myranda, who
does have dark hair, like a Stark would. Probability: 60%.
(f)Arya is either Myranda, or Sansa, or, much less likely, someone else
entirely. I think Myranda is the choice that makes the most sense as
far as who would put up with Ramsay. But speculators are very very
opinionated about this issue, because of the Reek problem.
FTB: Reek flees from Wintefell. In ADWD, Reek, with help from Mance Rayder, gets himself and Jeyne Poole out of Winterfell. Probability: 40%.
I don't think this is happening. I don't know if Mance is being sent to
Winterfell. That depends on if he gets killed by Stannis or glamoured
by Melisandre, and it depends on if Melisandre sees "Arya" in her
visions and sends Mance south. I do mostly suspect that if Myranda gets
treated badly by Ramsay that Reek will do something to save her. Theon's
actor is hinting that Theon does achieve some form of redemption...
FTB: Ramsay sends Jon a letter. The Pink Letter is
one of the things that ASOIAF readers know about, because it's rather
intense. In it he makes claims that can't all be true but which are
unnerving nonetheless, and which probably mean he captured and tortured
Mance Rayder. Probability: 50%. Is entirely dependent on whether Mance's plot puts him into Winterfell.
NFTB: Reek kills Ramsay and/or vice versa. Such a development would be completely not from the books. Probabilities: 30% dead Reek, 20% dead Ramsay, 50% dead both.
I think that the show is going to have the two of them come into
conflict somehow; that Theon being Reek will slip, and Theon will want
revenge against Ramsay. In terms of being a moment "that will really
blow people away", that would definitely count. Whether Theon will
survive attacking Ramsay is something else entirely.
Summary:
The all-but-absence of Jeyne Poole from the show complicates the
ability to faithfully adapt the Bolton and Theon storylines from ADWD.
That's not that big of a deal, it just changes things. My guess is that
the change means that Theon redeems himself, rather than having
(f)Arya's torment be the moral event horizon that he crosses which
finally causes him to betray Ramsay. The show invested a lot of time on
Ramsay and Theon's relationship in Season 3; having Theon redeem himself
by pushing Ramsay off the walls of Winterfell seems like a good return
on that investment. But, this being a show where no one has a good day,
Theon is also likely to die, either as retribution for his killing
Ramsay or just because Ramsay sometimes breaks his "toys".
Image by Veronica V. Jones, via westeros.org
Jorah Mormont
FTB: Jorah travels to Volantis. In AFFC, Jorah is on his way westward from Meereen, after being exiled by Daenerys. Probability: 100%.
The last we saw of Jorah, he was on horseback leaving Meereen. It's
unlikely he would go north, towards the Dothraki. It's unlikely he would
go southeast, towards Qarth. So I guess he would go north, towards
Volantis. Or maybe he trades his horse and takes a ship to Volantis.
FTB: Jorah gets captured at sea. After capturing Tyrion, the boat Tyrion and he is on gets captured by Yunkish slavers. Probability: 50%.
I'm just not sure why he would be on a boat. Is he sailing to Westeros
to Take the Black? Is he sailing to Meereen because he bought Daenerys
some more dragons?
NFTB: Jorah gets captured on land.
Jorah Mormont did help defeat the military of Yunkai, so if Yunkish
slavers encountered him on land, they might not hesitate to capture him.
Probability: 50%. The trailers have shown Jorah in
Daznak's Pit, a fighting put in Meereen, where most of the fighters are
slaves. So Jorah has to be a slave. So it's just as likely he is
captured on land as on a boat.
NFTB: Jorah dies. Either in Daznak's Pit or relatively close to it, Jorah Mormont suffers a mortal wound and dies. Probability: 75%. In ADWD,
once Jorah gets taken into slavery, his quality of life plummets, with
beatings a daily or near-daily torment. Of characters likely to die in TWOW, he is high on the list. So it seems like the show is going to "rush" his death, and have it happen in Season 5.
Summary: Jorah does not have a happy time in ADWD,
and he will not have a happy Season 5. The show might try to do
something "good" with his death; maybe he dies helping keep Daenerys
alive. Or he might just die in the fighting pits, while his Khaleesi
watches. I don't know which is more likely.
Image by Guillem H. Pongiluppi
Jon Snow
FTB: Jon Snow becomes Lord Commander.
After gaining a reputation during the Battle of Castle Black, Jon Snow
is voted in as the new Lord Commander of The Night's Watch. Probability: 100%. This is one of the big plot details of A Storm of Swords
which has yet to translate to the show. In Season 4, Thorne mentioned
that this election is going to happen. Casting clues (such as someone
cast as a Mallister supporter) all-but-confirm that this will happen in
Season 5, and Jon will win.
FTB: Jon Snow beheads Janos Slynt.
Janos Slynt refuses orders from Jon. The punishment for refusing orders
is beheading. Jon offers Janos more chances, Janos refuses, Jon cuts
his head off. Probability: 100%. This is all material
from the books, and it involves killing off a minor character. The show
is very likely to keep this plot point since it is bloody, it shows Jon
is serious about being a good Lord Commander, and it kills off a minor
villain.
NFTB: Jon goes to Hardhome.
Northeast of Eastwatch, the wildling village of Hardhome is being
attacked by the White Walkers. Jon leads the Night's Watch to save as
many Wildlings as he can. Probability: 100%. Lots of promotional material shows that Jon is going to Hardhome.
FTB: Jon Snow gets stabbed a lot.
A faction within the Night's Watch thinks that Jon is traitorous for
working so much with the Wildlings and with Stannis. So they stab him
"for the Watch". Probability: 99%. I think there's a
very small chance that the show will not use this plot, but that's a
very small chance. This is one of the WHAM moments of ADWD, and if the
show doesn't use this then I might eat a hat.
NFTB: Jon is reborn.
It hasn't happened in the books yet (he is, right now, Schrödinger's
Snow), but the book and show are both hinting that Melisandre brings him
back to life somehow. Probability: 50%. I think this
would be a fantastic last scene of Season 5: it would end the season on a
combination of hope and WTF, and the audience would love it. But for it
to happen one or two main dominoes have to be established: Melisandre
has to stay at Castle Black, and possibly Jon has to have some warging
abilities with Ghost. If either or both of those plots get touched on in
Season 5, then the probability of this jumps to 100%.
Summary: There's
things that the show adaptation of Game of Thrones has done with Jon
Snow that have been somewhat confusing; some of his material in Season 4
seemed to be "filler", for lack of a kinder word. In this season, he's
being given more active material than his book counterpart, which should
lead to more of an audience reaction when he gets turned into a corpse.
But he'll get better (probably).
Image by Marc Simonetti, via Westeros.org
Daenerys Targaryen, her allies, and her enemies
FTB: The Sons of the Harpy emerge. A militant group of Meereenese resisting the Targaryen rule, they target supporters of the Khaleesi, including the Unsullied. Probability: 100%. They're seen in the promotional materials.
FTB: Yunkai and Qarth both make war on Meereen.
In the books, Yunkai raises an army and takes over Astapor before
starting to turn toward Meereen. Qarth sends Xaro Xhoan Daxos as an
emissary with the offer of 13 ships to send Daenerys to Westeros. She
refuses, and Qarth joins the war. Probabilities: 100% for Yunkai, 50% for Qarth. Xaro Xhoan Daxos is dead on the show, so the show might just skip over Qarth's war against Meereen.
FTB: Hizdahr and Daenerys marry. Hizdahr offers marriage, and Daenerys agrees if the Sons can be stopped. The Sons stop (how... coincidental), and they marry. Probability: 100%.
The show has promised us three weddings this season, and this will be
the one that Tyrion attends. But he won't be accused at poisoning anyone
at this wedding, because Strong Belwas isn't there to be poisoned with
spiced locusts.
FTB: Dragons are loosed.
Daznak's Pit reopens to celebrate the wedding, the noise and blood
draws in Drogon, Drogon sets people on fire, Daenerys exits Meereen, on
Drogon. After she leaves, Viserion and Rhaegal are let loose. Probability: 100% for Drogon, 30% for Daenerys leaving, 50% for Viserion and Rhaegal.
It's all-but-confirmed that Drogon shows up at Daznak's Pit. Daenerys
leaving Meereen on Drogon seems less likely to occur; the show is
trimming down on "extraneous" plots, after all. If she's able to "tame"
Drogon again, then Viserion and Rhaegal can also get "tamed", and
Daenerys is now in control of three large dragons. If she's not able to
"tame" Drogon, then it's likely that the Sons of the Harpy release the
other two dragons, just to break Meereen some more.
NFTB: The Battle of Fire. Yunkai begins their siege of Meereen. Possibility: 30%. Much like the Battle of Ice, this is content that was pushed into TWOW after ADWD
ended up being a monster of a book. It's possible it might be, at least
partly, included in Season 5. Or it might just be all for Season 6. Too
early to tell.
Summary: Season 4 already started adapting Daenerys's ADWD
material, so the adaptation in Season 5 shouldn't really change much of
what's left. The biggest change is that Quentyn Martell is not
involved, meaning that the damage he causes (because he's an idiot who
releases two dragons) will either be caused by someone else, or be
prevented entirely. I don't know which will be more likely to occur.
tl;dr
Epilogue
FTB: Pycelle and Kevan die. At the end of ADWD,
Varys shows up after hiding in Westeros somewhere. He kills Pycelle,
shoots Kevan with a crossbow, and as Kevan is dying, Varys tells him
that his death will cause King's Landing to fall into further chaos,
allowing the Targaryens to more easily take Westeros. Probability: 70%.
I don't know how Varys gets back to King's Landing, but it could
happen. But will the show kill off two Lannister patriachs in two
subsequent season finales? Hmm...
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