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Τετάρτη, 25 Νοεμβρίου 2015

Who really created ISIS?


These days I get a lot of questions like this one:
“I can’t help but notice: Since this supercycle formed in October, ISIS has been transformed from ‘the JV team’ into the world’s #1 terrorist threat.
“At the same time a relatively small Syrian insurgency has grown into a world war involving at least three nuclear powers — Russia, France and the U.S.
“Did the supercycle cause the rise of ISIS? What impact will ISIS have on my investments and on your forecasts for 2015-2020?”
— J.L.
It is a great question. After all, ISIS is on everyone’s minds these days. The horrific Paris massacres and new threats against Europe and the United States are making headlines all over the world.
But no the supercycle did not create ISIS or turn it into a global threat. Who did? I’ll leave it to political pundits to answer.
You see, the cycles I study do not “make” things happen. As I have pointed out many times in the past these cycles merely tell us when it is time for certain things to happen.

The birth of the supercycle.
Last July I began warning you that the world’s most powerful financial cycles would converge in October.
I said that they would form the first supercycle since 1929.
And I said that this supercycle would bring with it a global collapse of government debt: First in Europe, then in Japan and finally in the United States.
Many asked, “What, exactly, will happen in October?” My answer was always the same:
“We can’t know for sure. October is simply a marker on my charts. It marks the end of the era when governments could amass obscene debts with impunity ... and the beginning of a new era in which mankind pays the price for those debts.”
Example: Edward R. Dewey’s cycles charts predicted that it was time for a Great Depression to begin. They did not indicate the events that would trigger it. That’s the way the cycles work.
Chaos in Europe.
Sure enough, things started happening the first week of October just as I said they would.
Europe’s economy tanked. Exports, the lifeblood of the EU economy, cratered. Manufacturing collapsed. Unemployment spiked. The tax revenues European governments needed to make good on their debts were gravely threatened.
Worse: Germany, the economic engine of the Union, was pelted with a hailstorm of terrible news.
Deutsche Bank — Germany’s largest bank — reported multi-billion-dollar losses, laid off thousands of workers and closed nearly a dozen offices around the world.
Volkswagen — Germany’s largest employer — was caught up in emissions scandals likely to cause tens of billions of dollars in losses.
Unsurprisingly the powerful German economy — the ONLY economy capable of saving the European Union — faltered then stumbled.
And amazingly, ALL of this happened in the space of just a few weeks: It all began in the first week of October just as my cycles charts predicted.
Now ISIS is threatening
Europe’s economic survival
in three critical ways:
Threat #1 — The high cost of fighting terrorism: In Europe as in the United States, attempting to ensure homeland security is expensive. Billions must be spent on intelligence, security measures, law enforcement and more.
Here in the U.S., Pew Research reports we spend more than $16 billion per year on counter-terrorism efforts alone. But that’s just a drop in the ocean. Washington says the total cost of fighting terrorism since 2001 is $1.7 trillion.
For Europe, the cost of fighting ISIS is, quite simply, the straw that could break the Union’s back.
Deeply indebted Europe simply cannot afford to maintain its social safety net ... bail out failing nations like Greece, Italy and Portugal ... spend hundreds of billions opposing ISIS ... and still make good on its utterly unpayable debts.
Threat #2 — Refugees: It is now known that at least one of the terrorists in the Paris attacks was registered as a refugee. That’s not good news to a Union that is now in the process of accepting more than one million Syrian refugees.
The worse news is that hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees now living in Europe are entitled to free food, shelter, medical care — all the perks offered by the nation’s socialized safety net.
Threat #3 — War: Whenever nations begin shooting at each other, escalation and expansion are always major dangers. Just this morning, for instance, The New York Times reported that Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 warplane near the Syrian border.
Could this kind of incident prompt Russia to retaliate and attack Turkey? Could the fact that Turkey is a NATO country force the rest of the West to join the conflict?
Only time will tell. But one thing seems sure: Given its crushing debt and struggling economy, an expansion of the war in Syria and Iraq would surely crush the European Union.
ISIS’ continued rise
will directly impact
these three types of investments.
1. Anti-euro plays: Inverse ETFs and other, more highly leveraged investments that will continue to soar as the euro currency continues to plunge ...
2. Inverse plays on European stocks: The same types of vehicles, designed to skyrocket in value as European stocks enter a voracious bear market ...
3. Gold and other select commodity investments: The cycles charts are telling me that this month marks the beginning of the end for the long bear market in commodities.
The facts on the ground seem to support the message my cycles charts are sending us: Precious metals are mankind’s time-honored stores of value in troubled times — investments that tend to preserve wealth in times of crisis.
Precious metals — gold, silver, platinum and palladium — appear to be in the process of bottoming now. My first recommendations to members of my Supercycle Trader service will go out any minute, now.
Next — in the first three months of 2016 — we will see grains, copper and oil establish bottoms before beginning powerful new bull markets.

 Larry Edelson
Senior Analyst
Weiss Research

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